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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 10

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New Orleans Saints

Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has played at the 5th-quickest pace in the league (in a neutral context) this year, averaging 26.88 seconds per snap.

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the league). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Steelers rank as the 10th-least run-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) this year with a 36.6% run rate.

The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.

The New Orleans Saints defensive ends profile as the 5th-best unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have elected to go for it on 4th down a mere 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated some form of misdirection on a mere 35.9% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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