Jaylen Warren Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Rushing TD

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+437/-1001).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +439 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +437.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers rank as the 8th-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 49.4% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This quickens the pace, leading to more volume and stat accumulation.

Favors Under

Opposing squads have run for the 7th-least TDs in the NFL (0.60 per game) against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties rank as the 4th-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down just 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have incorporated some form of misdirection on a lowly 35.9% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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