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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see 134.2 offensive plays called: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.

The 10th-most plays in football have been called by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a massive 59.1 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may slide.

This week, Jaylen Warren is expected by the predictive model to secure a spot in the 90th percentile among running backs with 4.2 targets.

Jaylen Warren's 15.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 84th percentile for RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Jaylen Warren's play as a receiver has tailed off this season, averaging a measly 2.4 adjusted receptions compared to 3.6 last season.

The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (79.8%) to running backs this year (79.8%).

The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 4th-best group of LBs in football this year in pass coverage.

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