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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-186/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -159 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -186.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is implied by the Steelers being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's game.

Right now, the 9th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Steelers.

The Ravens defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year.

In this week's contest, Jaylen Warren is projected by the projections to find himself in the 84th percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.0 targets.

Jaylen Warren's 15.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) ranks among the best in football: 84th percentile for RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 10th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Jaylen Warren's receiving skills have worsened this year, compiling just 2.4 adjusted receptions compared to 3.6 last year.

This year, the tough Ravens defense has yielded a paltry 78.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL.

The Ravens safeties grade out as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in football this year in regard to pass rush.

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