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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Philadelphia Eagles vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's line suggests a throwing game script for the Steelers, who are -5.5-point underdogs.

At the moment, the 9th-fastest paced offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and reduced run volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Warren to accumulate 3.8 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 87th percentile when it comes to running backs.

Jaylen Warren has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.0% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile when it comes to running backs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 54.6% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Jaylen Warren's play as a receiver has declined this year, totaling a mere 2.5 adjusted receptions compared to 3.6 last year.

The Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.7%) vs. running backs this year (79.7%).

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in the league.

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