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Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-155).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).Jaylen Warren's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 85.0% to 90.3%.This year, the poor Cleveland Browns pass defense has allowed a colossal 88.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 5th-highest rate in football.As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Cleveland's group of LBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 44.1% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.Jaylen Warren has been much less involved in his offense's pass attack this season (10.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.0%).
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