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Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+118/-154).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +118.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.With regard to a defense's impact on pace, at 27.61 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 5th-fastest in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time.Opposing offenses have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: most in the NFL.Jaylen Warren's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 85.0% to 88.0%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 52.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.Jaylen Warren's 9.4% Target Rate this season reflects a substantial reduction in his pass game workload over last season's 15.0% figure.The Steelers offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.Jaylen Warren's play as a receiver has declined this year, accumulating just 2.0 adjusted catches compared to 3.6 last year.When it comes to safeties pass-rushing, Baltimore's safety corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.
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