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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the present time, the 6th-quickest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Pittsburgh Steelers.

In this week's game, Jaylen Warren is projected by the projections to find himself in the 89th percentile among RBs with 4.1 targets.

Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his team's passing offense this season (14.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (6.3%).

Jaylen Warren's 3.4 adjusted catches per game this season indicates a remarkable gain in his receiving proficiency over last season's 1.8 figure.

The Cincinnati Bengals safeties profile as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 52.6% of their downs: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

When it comes to pass protection (and the significance it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-worst in the league this year.

Jaylen Warren's 82.8% Adjusted Catch% this year shows a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 88.1% mark.

This year, the daunting Bengals defense has given up a feeble 78.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 7th-best rate in the league.

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