Jaylen Warren Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 3:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 66.1 total plays in this game: the 4th-most among all teams this week.
In this game, Jaylen Warren is expected by the projection model to position himself in the 93rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 4.7 targets.
Jaylen Warren has been a more integral piece of his offense's passing game this season (14.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (6.3%).
Jaylen Warren's 3.4 adjusted receptions per game this year indicates a material boost in his pass-catching talent over last year's 1.8 mark.

Favors Under

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 26.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Steelers grades out as the 7th-worst in football this year.
Jaylen Warren's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 88.1% to 81.4%.
This year, the formidable Cleveland Browns defense has given up a paltry 75.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 4th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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