Jaylen Warren Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to garner 4.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jaylen Warren has been a more important option in his team's passing attack this year (13.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (6.3%).
Jaylen Warren's play as a receiver has improved this season, averaging 3.6 adjusted catches vs just 1.8 last season.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.1 per game) this year.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.
Jaylen Warren's 84.2% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a meaningful decline in his receiving skills over last season's 88.1% mark.

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