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Jaylen Warren Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-168/+126).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (83.8%) vs. RBs this year (83.8%).The Atlanta Falcons linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst LB corps in the league this year with their pass rush.The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone no-huddle on 15.2% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-most in the NFL). This speeds up the pace, leading to more volume and stat production.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 125.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has afforded their QB a mere 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 9th-best in the league since the start of last season.The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.The Pittsburgh Steelers have utilized play action on a lowly 18.5% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (3rd-least in football), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.
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