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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-122/-106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -122.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is indicated by the Steelers being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the predictive model to see 131.4 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.

The model projects Jaylen Warren to accrue 3.3 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to running backs.

When it comes to air yards, Jaylen Warren ranks in the towering 80th percentile among RBs this year, averaging an astounding 1.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 51.6% of their chances: the 4th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

The Steelers O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Jaylen Warren's 15.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season shows a material drop-off in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 22.0 mark.

This year, the fierce Bengals defense has conceded a measly 21.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the fewest in the league.

The Bengals pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus running backs this year, surrendering 5.04 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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