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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Cleveland Browns vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have 137.5 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.

The 3rd-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Pittsburgh Steelers this year (a whopping 61.4 per game on average).

Jaylen Warren has posted a massive 1.0 air yards per game this year: 79th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That might not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Jaylen Warren's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 85.0% to 90.3%.

This year, the poor Cleveland Browns pass defense has allowed a colossal 88.9% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 5th-highest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3.5 points.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 44.1% of their chances: the lowest clip on the slate this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being projected in this game) typically cause worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and higher rush volume.

Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.3 per game) this year.

Jaylen Warren has been much less involved in his offense's pass attack this season (10.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (15.0%).

More Jaylen Warren Player Props

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