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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The model projects Jaylen Warren to accrue 4.1 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs.

Jaylen Warren has been a big part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 14.8% last year, which places him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

With an impressive 23.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (89th percentile) last year, Jaylen Warren ranks among the top RB receiving threats in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The Steelers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football last year, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

As it relates to air yards, Jaylen Warren ranks in the paltry 2nd percentile among running backs last year, averaging just -7.0 per game.

The Steelers O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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