Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 3, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-120/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Steelers offense to be the quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.02 seconds per snap.
The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to total 4.1 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Jaylen Warren has been a more important option in his team's pass attack this season (14.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.3%).
Jaylen Warren has accrued a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (25.0) this year than he did last year (14.0).
The Titans pass defense has not been good when opposing RBs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 9.50 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored this week, indicating more of a focus on running than their normal game plan.
When talking about air yards, Jaylen Warren ranks in just the 9th percentile among running backs this year, totaling just -5.0 per game.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year.
Jaylen Warren's 82.5% Adjusted Completion% this year reflects a significant reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 88.1% figure.
Jaylen Warren's pass-game effectiveness has tailed off this year, accumulating a mere 5.72 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 6.99 rate last year.

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