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Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -103.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Steelers are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to run 67.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 41.5 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.

This week, Jaylen Warren is expected by the model to position himself in the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.6 targets.

Jaylen Warren's 17.1% Target% this season reflects a a material progression in his pass attack workload over last season's 6.3% figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a measly 53.5 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

As it relates to air yards, Jaylen Warren ranks in the paltry 7th percentile among RBs this year, accruing just -9.0 per game.

The Steelers O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Jaylen Warren's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 88.1% to 84.4%.

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