Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 16, 2023 8:41 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
In this contest, Jaylen Warren is expected by the projection model to slot into the 86th percentile among RBs with 4.6 targets.
Jaylen Warren's 13.5% Target Rate this season represents a material boost in his passing offense utilization over last season's 6.3% rate.
Jaylen Warren has accrued significantly more adjusted receiving yards per game (21.0) this season than he did last season (14.0).
This year, the anemic Colts defense has been torched for a colossal 44.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 4th-most in football.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.2 per game) this year.
Jaylen Warren has accumulated a puny -8.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 4th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Jaylen Warren's 82.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates an impressive decline in his pass-catching skills over last season's 88.1% mark.

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