Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jaylen Warren

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 5:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-112/-117).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -117.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Steelers to call the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The projections expect Jaylen Warren to accumulate 4.3 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
Jaylen Warren's 13.8% Target Share this season shows a meaningful boost in his pass game volume over last season's 6.3% rate.
Jaylen Warren has compiled substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (23.0) this year than he did last year (14.0).
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has yielded the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (87.2%) versus RBs this year (87.2%).

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Steelers have called the 9th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being projected in this game) usually cause decreased passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher run volume.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

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