Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 3:57 AM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 21.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Steelers are predicted by our trusted projection set to call 65.9 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most on the slate this week.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
The predictive model expects Jaylen Warren to garner 4.2 targets in this contest, on balance, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Jaylen Warren has been a more important option in his team's passing attack this year (13.9% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (6.3%).
Jaylen Warren's 25.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year signifies a significant gain in his receiving skills over last year's 14.0 rate.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
The 6th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Steelers this year (a measly 54.5 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been wary to rely on the passing game too much against the Green Bay Packers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.1 per game) this year.
In regards to air yards, Jaylen Warren ranks in just the 7th percentile among RBs this year, totaling just -6.0 per game.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all air attack stats), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year.