Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Warren

RB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Warren Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 13.41 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has allowed the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 15.0) versus running backs this year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, surrendering 5.34 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on just 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.