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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 9

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Dolphins being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Dolphins this year (a whopping 62.6 per game on average).
  • Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 7th-most in the league.
  • As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Buffalo's LB corps has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-least pass-oriented offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Dolphins are forecasted by the projections to call just 60.6 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Jaylen Waddle's 17.1% Target% this year indicates a meaningful diminishment in his pass attack usage over last year's 23.3% mark.
  • Jaylen Waddle's play as a receiver has diminished this year, totaling a measly 3.6 adjusted catches compared to 5.1 last year.

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