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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs Tennessee Titans

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Miami Dolphins will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyler Huntley in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.

The Dolphins have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved pass game results when facing more favorable weather this week.

Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Waddle to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing attack in this game (20.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (13.6% in games he has played).

With an exceptional 4.9 adjusted catches per game (88th percentile) since the start of last season, Jaylen Waddle rates among the best WRs in the league in the NFL.

Jaylen Waddle's 92.4% Adjusted Catch Rate this season signifies a substantial gain in his receiving skills over last season's 68.2% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A running game script is suggested by the Dolphins being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 52.3% of their downs: the lowest clip on the slate this week.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the model to have only 124.1 offensive plays called: the fewest among all games this week.

The Miami Dolphins have called the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 56.5 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Titans defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

More Jaylen Waddle Player Props

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