Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 5:02 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-139/+108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 7th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (63.7% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The projections expect Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 7.5 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 21.8% this year, which places him in the 79th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Jaylen Waddle ranks as one of the best wide receivers in the game this year, averaging an excellent 5.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 84th percentile.
Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 65.0% to 73.2%.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
At the moment, the 9th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Miami Dolphins.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

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