Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+108/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -138.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects Jaylen Waddle to notch 7.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile among wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 20.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 78th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has been among the top pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 77th percentile.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Buffalo's safety corps has been phenomenal since the start of last season, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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