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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Miami Dolphins vs Dallas Cowboys

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 63.4% pass rate.

The projections expect Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 8.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts.

Jaylen Waddle's 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 50.1.

Jaylen Waddle's play as a receiver has been refined this season, totaling 5.4 adjusted catches vs a mere 4.4 last season.

Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch% jumping from 65.0% to 70.2%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the moment, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Dolphins.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced air attack volume, and higher run volume.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the league.

This year, the fierce Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a puny 58.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 4th-smallest rate in the league.

When it comes to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, Dallas's unit has been excellent this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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