Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-120/-106).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Jaylen Waddle to total 9.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 23.6% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle comes in as one of the leading wide receivers in the league this year, averaging an excellent 5.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.
Jaylen Waddle's 68.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 65.0% figure.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

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