Jaylen Waddle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 7th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to notch 8.4 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 21.8% this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving skills have worsened this season, compiling a measly 4.6 yards per game vs 6.4 last season.

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