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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 12

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-123/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 40.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -123.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Dolphins have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a staggering 60.0 plays per game.
  • This year, the anemic Patriots pass defense has yielded a whopping 69.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 6th-biggest rate in football.
  • The New England Patriots pass defense has shown weak efficiency vs. wideouts this year, allowing 8.78 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-most in football.
  • When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's collection of LBs has been very bad this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Dolphins, who are a heavy favorite by 7.5 points.
  • The predictive model expects the Dolphins as the 7th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Dolphins to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Jaylen Waddle has been a much smaller part of his offense's pass game this season (15.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (23.3%).
  • Jaylen Waddle has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (42.0 per game) than he did last season (77.0 per game).

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