Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (-160/+130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect Jaylen Waddle to total 7.2 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has been among the top WRs in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 63.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 83rd percentile.
Jaylen Waddle has been among the most effective receivers in football, averaging an excellent 9.75 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 75th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle's 9.76 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year signifies a a remarkable progression in his efficiency in picking up extra yardage over last year's 6.7% mark.
The Panthers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.90 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.19 seconds per play.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Carolina Panthers, averaging the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.6 per game) this year.
After averaging 82.0 air yards per game last year, Jaylen Waddle has produced significantly fewer this year, now boasting 58.0 per game.