Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 6:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 67.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 64.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 67.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects Jaylen Waddle to total 9.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 23.6% this year, which puts him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has accrued a colossal 78.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle grades out as one of the best pass-catching WRs this year, averaging a terrific 73.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.
Jaylen Waddle's 68.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents an impressive progression in his receiving proficiency over last year's 65.0% figure.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Dolphins are a massive favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a reliance on running than their normal approach.
The projections expect the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 56.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see only 127.5 offensive plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Dolphins have called the 6th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 23-mph being projected in this game) generally mean worse passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased run volume.

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