Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 65.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 60.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 65.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.4% pass rate.
In this week's game, Jaylen Waddle is expected by our trusted projection set to place in the 85th percentile among WRs with 7.5 targets.
With a high 22.3% Target Rate (83rd percentile) this year, Jaylen Waddle stands among the wide receivers with the most usage in football.
Jaylen Waddle comes in as one of the top wide receivers in the game this year, averaging a terrific 69.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 87th percentile.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving reliability have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate increasing from 65.0% to 68.1%.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the Dolphins being a massive 14-point favorite in this game.
The projections expect this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Miami Dolphins this year (only 53.3 per game on average).
Jaylen Waddle has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (77.0 per game) than he did last season (82.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 9.4 adjusted yards per target this season illustrates a material decrease in his pass-catching ability over last season's 10.5 figure.

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