Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (+106/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 70.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 70.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 64.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accrue 7.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 79th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 22.2% this year, which ranks in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has notched far more air yards this season (83.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle has notched many more receiving yards per game (83.0) this season than he did last season (64.0).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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