Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 4:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 70.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 70.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 64.1% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 8.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has been a big part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 21.5% this year, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has put up significantly more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.9% to 65.2%.
The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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