Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 50.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 50.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 50.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins will be rolling with backup quarterback Skylar Thompson in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 7.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 22.6% this year, which ranks in the 84th percentile among wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has posted significantly more air yards this year (80.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.95 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 73.9% to 66.0%.

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