Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins rank as the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 66.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to accumulate 8.2 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has accrued many more air yards this season (98.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 60.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 53.7.
Jaylen Waddle has accrued a lot more receiving yards per game (84.0) this year than he did last year (64.0).

Favors Under

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 2nd-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 30.77 seconds per snap.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game vs. the New York Jets defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

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