Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Green Bay Packers · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 63.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 66.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to notch 7.8 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has been an integral part of his team's offense, posting a Target Share of 21.7% this year, which ranks in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has accrued quite a few more air yards this year (89.0 per game) than he did last year (60.0 per game).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a big 7-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.8 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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