Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+167/-234).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -218 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -234.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Jaylen Waddle has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.1% this year, which ranks in the 79th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle has notched far more air yards this season (83.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 51.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 80th percentile for wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle grades out in the 94th percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.62 per game.
The Chicago Bears pass defense has allowed the 9th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68%) vs. wideouts this year (68.0%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 28.2 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: 2nd-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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