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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 8

Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +181 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to be a more important option in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (21.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (13.3% in games he has played).

Jaylen Waddle has put up significantly more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).

Jaylen Waddle's 50.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 80th percentile for WRs.

Jaylen Waddle grades out in the 90th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging a terrific 0.43 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

The Miami Dolphins O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Jaylen Waddle's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.9% to 65.2%.

The Miami Dolphins O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack stats across the board.

The Miami Dolphins have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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