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Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.

Opposing offenses have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in football.

Jaylen Waddle has totaled a whopping 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 80th percentile among WRs.

Jaylen Waddle's 72.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 53.7.

Jaylen Waddle ranks in the 92nd percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.47 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Jaylen Waddle to be a much smaller part of his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (24.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (30.8% in games he has played).

The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Jaylen Waddle's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 73.9% to 66.8%.

The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the 6th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.80 per game since the start of last season.

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