Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Baltimore Ravens vs Miami Dolphins · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+185/-245).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.4 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the league.
Jaylen Waddle has been heavily involved in his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 20.0% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among WRs.
Jaylen Waddle has been responsible for a monstrous 23.0% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile among wideouts.
Jaylen Waddle's 52.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 83rd percentile for wide receivers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 58.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (64.3%) versus WRs since the start of last season (64.3%).
The Miami Dolphins offensive line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-fastest in football since the start of last season.