Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Jaylen Waddle

NFL · Player Props

Jaylen Waddle

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaylen Waddle Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-220).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Jaylen Waddle has totaled quite a few more air yards this season (91.0 per game) than he did last season (60.0 per game).
Jaylen Waddle's 52.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 80th percentile for wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle ranks in the 92nd percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a stellar 0.50 per game.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 8th-highest Completion% in the league (68.3%) versus WRs this year (68.3%).

Favors Under

The Dolphins are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.7 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-least in the NFL.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.
Jaylen Waddle's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.5% to 63.2%.

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