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Jayden Reed Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+115/-145).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +115.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Jayden Reed's 74.9% Route% this season represents a substantial growth in his pass attack utilization over last season's 63.4% rate.Our trusted projections expect Jayden Reed to accumulate 6.5 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 76th percentile among wideouts.The Green Bay O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.Jayden Reed's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 72.1% to 80.3%.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this game, suggesting more of a reliance on rushing than their usual approach.The model projects the Packers as the 11th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.0% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Miami's group of CBs has been very good this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL.
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