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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

New York Jets vs Seattle Seahawks

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+107/-137).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ +116 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ +107.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.3% pass rate.

The predictive model expects this game to see the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has been less involved as a potential target this year (91.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (73.9%).

The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to accumulate 8.0 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wide receivers.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba's receiving skills have improved this year, notching 6.0 adjusted receptions compared to a mere 3.8 last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Jets, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 30.8 per game) this year.

The Seattle offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (60.4%) versus WRs this year (60.4%).

The New York Jets cornerbacks profile as the 7th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in defending pass-catchers.

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