Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NFL · Player Props

Jaxon Smith-Njigba

WR · Seattle Seahawks

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 9th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (62.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Seahawks.
Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower run volume.
In this week's contest, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is anticipated by the model to place in the 80th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 7.4 targets.
The leading projections forecast Jaxon Smith-Njigba to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing attack in this week's contest (9.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.7% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (72.2%) to WRs this year (72.2%).

Favors Under

This week's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Seahawks, who are a heavy favorite by 8.5 points.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to see just 127.1 offensive plays called: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.

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