|
|
Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (+100/-129).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 31.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -129.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
With a 4.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Broncos to run on 45.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Broncos are expected by our trusted projection set to run 66.9 total plays in this game: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (1-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop-off.This year, the weak Indianapolis Colts run defense has given up a monstrous 144.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
After taking on 53.4% of his offense's carries last year, Javonte Williams has played a smaller part in the ground game this year, now sitting at just 39.1%.Javonte Williams has run for quite a few less adjusted yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (49.0).With an atrocious tally of 3.68 adjusted yards per carry (17th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams rates among the bottom pure runners in the league at the position.With an atrocious record of 2.40 yards after contact (9th percentile) this year, Javonte Williams has been among the easiest-to-tackle RBs in the NFL.As it relates to the defensive tackles' role in stopping the run, Indianapolis's DT corps has been great this year, profiling as the 6th-best in the NFL.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
