Javonte Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive strategy to skew 2.0% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
The model projects the Broncos to be the 4th-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
In this week's contest, Javonte Williams is anticipated by the predictive model to find himself in the 92nd percentile among running backs with 16.9 carries.
Javonte Williams has earned 54.8% of his team's carries this year, putting him in the 85th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Javonte Williams has averaged 52.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest marks in the league when it comes to running backs (77th percentile).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Broncos to call the 9th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The 4th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Broncos this year (a lowly 53.7 per game on average).
Javonte Williams's running effectiveness (3.75 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football this year (24th percentile among running backs).
The Vikings defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, yielding just 3.83 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).

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