Javonte Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 14, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Denver Broncos offensive scheme to skew 1.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Sean Payton now calling the plays.
In this week's contest, Javonte Williams is predicted by the predictive model to find himself in the 82nd percentile among running backs with 15.0 carries.
Javonte Williams has garnered 53.7% of his offense's rushing play calls this year, placing him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Javonte Williams has averaged 49.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the largest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (79th percentile).
This year, the formidable Bills run defense has conceded a measly 4.94 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 30th-smallest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to run on 42.7% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are predicted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.8 plays on offense in this contest: the fewest among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Denver Broncos this year (only 52.2 per game on average).
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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