Javonte Williams Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 57.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Javonte Williams to accumulate 13.3 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has earned 47.9% of his team's carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
Javonte Williams has grinded out 50.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (82nd percentile).
Javonte Williams has been among the best running backs in the NFL at picking up extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.42 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while ranking in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.5% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 5th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 44.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 6th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 60.5 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.