Javonte Williams Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Rushing TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-295).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -283 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -295.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Javonte Williams has garnered 41.9% of his team's red zone carries since the start of last season, placing him in the 78th percentile among running backs.
Opposing squads have run for the 8th-most TDs in football (1.05 per game) vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos as the 10th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 40.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 125.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 58.4 plays per game.
The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box against opponents on 21.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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