Javonte Williams Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Javonte Williams

NFL · Player Props

Javonte Williams

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 12, 2023 11:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Javonte Williams Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-205/+155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -182 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is implied by the Broncos being a a giant -10.5-point underdog this week.
Our trusted projections expect Javonte Williams to accumulate 2.9 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
Javonte Williams has been among the leading pass-catching RBs this year, averaging a remarkable 2.7 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Javonte Williams's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 77.6% to 82.0%.
The Chiefs pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (90.3%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (90.3%).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Denver Broncos are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 62.0 total plays in this game: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
The Broncos have called the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 51.8 plays per game.
Javonte Williams has been a less important option in his team's passing offense this season (11.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (16.8%).
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Kansas City's safety corps has been one of the most skilled this year, profiling as the 10th-best in the NFL.

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